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PHX Real Estate - Insights into 2023's Upward Market Trend Despite High Interest Rates

Good afternoon, ahem - this evening!


This past April I posted my first market update video for 2023. Prior to that, the last video update I published was in July of 2022. I made a commitment to myself and my buddy, that I would show up regularly every two-three months to share the latest with what's going on.


Well... after a full day's worth of effort, I am happy to report that I took my first go at video editing today... and being honest, I'd be lying if I said that I didn't like totally and completely enjoy myself!! *Not making the video... eeedddittting it ;)


Man, I have to get in the zone of total discomfort before I start talking to myself, pretending I'm talking to you. ;)


It's been a hot minute since I was able to do some design/marketing. So today was a real treat; but definitely a grind.

That being said, without further ado, here's the link! https://youtu.be/qz3bpVhJReo

Josh Brill Realty One Group Surprise Real Estate Market Video

Here's the quick skinny on what's going on!


The first half of 2023 is in better shape than the last half of 2022!


Real estate values are up 5-7% since December of 2022.


This is great news because unlike the crazy COVID and post COVID years where 30% gains were all the raiv! A healthy market appreciates within a range of 5-7% year over year.


What does the data say?

real estate market changes within Maricopa county Arizona

​57% of homeowners in the Phoenix area have owned their home for three years or more. Within that three year span home values have appreciated approximately 40%. And these 40% values are holding.


Looking at only single family homes:

  • Active Listings, regardless of price point: 6,621

  • Homes under $600k: 3,135

  • Homes under $400k: 796


Within the last 45 days:

  • Pending: 4,089

  • Closed: 6,262

  • Canceled listings: 902

    • Compare that to the homes under $400k at 796?!!!

In the month of June, 42% of all closed transactions with a price point of $200k - $500k, Sellers contributed an average of $8,000 to buyer closing costs. Closing costs is financial baggage that comes with a loan. In order to meet an agreement in negotiation, Sellers stepped in.

That being said however, within that same month of June and $200 - $500k purchase price, 20-30% of closed transactions reported receiving $5,000 - $5,500 over asking offer price.

That means that the nice looking and well priced homes are still competitive amongst buyers.


Presently 17 of the largest cities in Maricopa County are in a Sellers Market. There are more Buyers than Sellers.


Despite the high interest rates, today 7%, the inventory would need to double in order for the market to be balanced between Buyer and Seller.


Interest Rates as of today, July 21, 2023:

  • 30 year Conventional: 7%

  • 30 year FHA: 6.6%

Conventional loans are loans where the bank institution themselves assumes the risk to what could be a bad loan. They traditionally require more money in the down payment and their underwriting is a bit more strict. FHA loans on the other hand are backed by the US of A! (we the people!) We assume the risk to what could be a bad loan.. ie, HUD home or Fannie Mae home?? These loans offer a lower down payment and the underwriting has less requirements compared to Conventional loans. The Feds have increased the FHA loan limit up to $530k from $440k in 2022. In addition to that great news, they have also reduced the cost of mortgage insurance. This is helping to keep more money in the buyer's pocket. With these changes in the FHA loan program, our market has seen a spike in FHA loans. IN April of 2022, the closed transaction of an FHA loan was 9%. Whereas in April of 2023, that number is at 22%. Due to the volatility of the interest rates, some lenders, not all lenders, have stepped things up creating 1% down payment programs for qualifying buyers. DISCLAIMER! I am not a lender.... I can just talk things out and understand the basics! Having said that! These two lender buddies of mine really know their shit! Jeremy Boillot | 480-677-0644

Lender Jeremy Boillot Barrett Financial

Tyler Arnaiz | 623-806-4645

Lender Tyler Arnaiz, Arnaiz Mortgage

​Both of these dudes are licensed in multiple states across the country. They not only do traditional loans, they also can do loans for new builds - yes, new builds, refi's and more.

Is it a good time to buy? yes it is.

As an example, look at the mechanics of renting a home in Surprise. Presently there are 154 single family rentals available within the MLS. Out of the 154, only two are $1,800 whereas the leading majority float around $2,300 - $3,000+ Depending on one's down payment at a 6% - 7% interest rate, loan amounts float around that same number. Another win in homeownership is the end of year tax deductible. Although I am not a CPA, the tax deduction against your mortgage insurance is a chunk larger when it's near 6% - 7% as opposed to the 2020-2022's 2.5% - 3%. For a single family income, this could be a considerable amount.

Is it a good time to sell? yes it is.

17 of the largest cities in Maricopa County are in a sellers market. Provided your home shows well and is priced well, this plays into your favor. Although the inventory is low, it's better than it's been in three years and isn't moving at the speed of dramatic politics on the Facebook?! - or speed of light! haha! All that aside however, there are a lot of moving parts involved. There are decisions to be made and some decisions that shouldn't be made. This is something a buyer and seller should not rush. Should you find yourself in a deliberating state of mind and want to speak to someone to help guide you or even keep you from jumping, we would be happy to, we would be grateful to help you or someone you know. We would love the opportunity to buy some pizza and beer, or pizza and lemonade.


Barro's Pizza and beer bud light and sam adams octoberfest

And hook up our Laptop up to the TV in the comfort of your living room and look at what home fits your needs best...


Laptop to TV MLS Pizza and Beer

Or maybe simply go over the details to your detailed comparative market analysis (CMA) to see what's really going on in your neighborhood..


Team Orange Real Estate Market Analysis and Bernstain Bears' moving day book

Either way, we're a safe place for you to ask questions without expectation as we break bread, tip a cold one back, and figure out the best decision for you and your family.


Team orange pizza and beer equals you prepared

There's a lot of really great info in there! :) Please be sure to share this with someone you care about. Should you have a question, please don't hesitate to hit me up, or one of my lender buddies, Jeremy and Tyler. Have a grateful weekend buddy!


modern custom home negative edge pool with sunken deck with gas fireplace


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