Good evening buddy?!
Man?!
Did that title surprise you or what?!
Honestly?!..
You can tell me. hahah
The last time I made a market update was July 2022.
I know.. It's been a hot minute.
That being said, I start the video off being incredibly vulnerably transparent in a way that I never have through video. I'm used to pouring my heart out through my words here in my blog, but considering the significance of the topic, literally speaking from the heart is where I had to start. Through an accidental mess up on my end, I stopped the live video just as I was talking about the market.
In an effort to keep the vulnerable-authenticity of the post, I figured out a way to make two videos into one...
AND DAMN! Shit happens for a reason!
I am so happy I stumbled upon this feature of simple software. The video is tremendously more engageable as I could subtitle key points throughout it all.
I will touch base on much of what I say, but in short summary throughout the post here.
But if you want to skip my thoughts and go into the video, here's the link.
Considering how distant I've been, it was important to be vulnerable and transparent in a way I've not been in the past.. before I do, I need to give a huge thanks, a publicly shown hug of gratitude..
First, thank you for always showing up to read and now watch my thoughts. It's been through this that I have found such confidence in myself.
Thank you to my precious Chas for letting me figure this shit out as best I could.
My sweet little Team Orange for being patient with me.
Thank you Craig Deats, my amazing broker, who gave me an ear to yell, angry scream, cry scream, all things not me... all the while knowing I was going through a very hard time and didn't hold judgement.
My real estate wingman and shadow mentor, Miss Karen Burkardt and her lovely little team. Gosh damn it's been a ride.
My sweet Aunt-Mom Becky, and my Sister-Cuz Kelsey for checking in off and on while not taking things personally as I was unresponsive through text for weeks at a time.
And lastly, a band of super awesome customers who let me be me, who allowed me to clearly be all over the place in the natural stresses and anxiety of things. Y'all do more than I say you do...
So from the bottom of my huge fucking heart...
thank you!
Some may know, some may have put it together... shit, some I have told in person.
For the last eight or so months, I had pretty much quit all things real estate.
I attended a meeting last year where I heard a successful real estate agent talk about avoiding burnout. Like a splinter being removed from my hand, immediately those words closed a circuit in my head bringing a definition to exactly how I was feeling.
I was smoked, jaded, had a shitty attitude and flat burned the fuck out.
One of my shortcomings is talking about my successes - specifically around anything real estate.
I post a lot of cool shit that I'm building or creating on the social webs, however, I almost never talk about my successes or cool shit in real estate.
Because of not talking about it, throughout the year I will get calls from people checking in on me asking if I'm still doing real estate. And I definitely deserve those calls of curiosity.
One of the things I am good at however, is looking at the data. This has served me well in financial assessments and also serving my real estate clients.
When I was at my low these past few months I stumbled upon looking at my own data. I scabbed back why the burnout happened at all.
Jan, 2019, my mother in law was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer
Springtime, 2019, I had to set some serious boundaries with my parents and siblings. Leaving me effectively estranged from all of them; this is still the case to this day. Aside from my GM, Aunt-Mom and Sister-Cuz, this is all who's in my regular circle.
Jan, 2020, Chas's mom passed away in our house, in her arms. RIP Nanna..
Mar, 2020, Chas's god mother and nanny, passed away. RIP Tina
Mar, 2020, Covid shit on the world's lap.
June, 2020, Chas's brother found his father dead at 47, in his bedroom. I left a job in Buckeye that day and brought him to our home, where he lived with us for months. RIP Shawn
Dec, 2020, Just as things started to feel normal'ish.. my father in law, bonus dad, papa John died of a heart attack... RIP Bonus Dad
2020 was setting the pace for a ticking time bomb in the real estate world.
2021 - 2022 was nothing short of a shit show of real estate and construction demands.
Throughout all the grief and struggle our family was dealing with, someone still needed to go to work. Largely, that fell on my shoulders to provide and serve through such a crazy industry.
Through the years of 2019-2022, we successfully closed 80 or so real estate transactions.
That averaged to be approximately $7M in sales each year, for a total of almost $27,000,000.
In 2019, my stupid ass also decided to start a handyman business as well?! ...
During 2019-2022, I completed north of 700 handyman jobs and in doing so, generated a little more than $280,000 in receipts.
As 2022 proceeded to roll in, we had to put down 3 of our 4 dogs in a span of three months. The wheels were coming off and if I didn't do something different, I wasn't going to get any better. Come the end of summer I was falling into an incredibly deep level of burnout mixed with depression.. All I wanted to do really was come home, get fucked up, and play video games.. LOL I did work to keep things going, but I was essentially rolling downhill in a semi-controlled fall. With that, I simply disappeared... This is why I didn't have anything to report real estate wise. Through the falling and slowing down, once I collected myself I started to look at my data. With fresh eyes I could see why I was so burned out.. meanwhile, I could also see that through the reality of it all, for one dude really, I hung in there pretty well... aside from the burnout of course. hahah With a better mindset, talking to the right people, all of it reminded me that I am actually pretty good at this business. And I should be proud and feel good about myself!
Fast forward to today... I AM SOOO MUCH BETTER! :) :)
AND YES! I AM! AND WE ARE (Chas and I) Still doing real estate! :)
Before I close with the data, I need to lead with this motivational message I have in my database and printed at my desk.
Care of Seth Godin:
PERSISTENCE vs CONSISTENT
Persistence is sort of annoying.
Consistency, on the other hand, is the happy twin brother of persistence.
Consistent with your statements, consistent in the content you create, consistent in the way you chip away at the problem you’re seeking to solve.
Persistence can be selfish, but consistency is generous.
And the best thing is that you only have to make the choice to be consistent once. After that, it’s simply a matter of keeping your promise.
So, it is my promise of consistency to show up regularly every two months or so, to keep my people updated on the happenings of the real estate market and my real estate life. :)
OKAY! :)
Now that all the touchy feely stuff is done... Please watch the video! https://youtu.be/oFTzZ43IOZk
*The first half is my recorded vulnerability, however, the last half is all the meat of the data!
Good shit!! :) Here is some, but not all the data, so you'll need to check out the vid! :)
Courtesy of the Cromford Report:
Supply Down 36% Since October,
Dropping 54 Listings per Day in April Two More Cities in Seller’s Markets This Month,
Prices Up 4 Months in a Row For Buyers: It’s been an eventful 4 weeks, again. Conventional rates dropped from their high of 7.1% on March 2nd to 6.1% by April 5th. Buyers entering the market in Phoenix today may be getting an unexpected shock if they’re looking for desperate sellers and rock bottom prices. Two more cities entered seller’s markets this month, Surprise and Goodyear. Now 14 out of the 17 biggest cities are favoring sellers and some zip codes in Chandler and the West Valley are on the market just 2-3 weeks prior to contract, down from 9-11 weeks. January and February were months where skepticism dominated the marketplace.
Skepticism happens when leading indicators (reflecting future performance) are not in alignment with lagging indicators (reflecting past performance). Today, we are finally seeing the lagging indicators reflect what the leading indicators were telling us back in January. Sales price measures have now risen for 4 months straight and, while still down year-over-year for now, average sales price per square foot has recovered 5.7% since December. This is despite extreme mortgage rate volatility, two large bank failures, and another fed funds rate hike. You may ask yourself, “How can it be?”
Price trends do not depend on demand alone. Supply plays a major role, and it’s decreasing at an alarming rate. There are not enough new listings coming into the MLS to replace those that are going under contract. In fact, the MLS is seeing an average deficit of 54 listings per day since April 1st. While demand is considered 18% below normal for this time of year, supply is 40% below normal. Where is the relief going to come from? New single-family home permits dropped by 74% between March and December last year, so builders are not adding further to supply at the moment.
iBuyer inventory from OpenDoor and OfferPad has dwindled from 12% of active supply last August to just 3-4% today, and it’s continuing to decline. Foreclosures are still at record low levels with little evidence to support a significant rise. In the short-term rental market, lower occupancy rates and looming regulations may spur some owners to sell their properties after the peak season is over, but it’s unclear if that supply will be enough to relieve the overall shortage of homes for sale. At this time, leading indicators point to more upward pressure on price for Greater Phoenix. Time is of the essence for those buyers on the fence. As supply continues to decline, the percentage of sales with seller’s contributing to closing costs and mortgage rate buy-downs has declined as well, down from 52% in January to just 39% last week.
For Sellers: Seller positions are improving, but the current environment is not remotely comparable to 2021 or 2022. Only 3 major cities remain in Buyer’s Markets. They are Queen Creek, Maricopa, and Buckeye. Queen Creek is a mild buyer’s market moving towards balance, and Maricopa is fast-improving as well. Price measures have stopped dropping in Maricopa and Buckeye, and San Tan Valley (Pinal side of Queen Creek). Greater Phoenix would not be in a seller’s market right now without hefty seller-paid incentives to buyers. Price points between $250K-$800K are showing 40-57% of sales involving seller-paid closing costs, and West Valley zip codes close to I-17 and Avondale are seeing 70-80% with similar concessions. The median cost to sellers is an additional $9,000, which is typically allocated to temporarily buying down a buyer’s mortgage rate by 2-3%. While sellers may lament buying down a rate on their sale, they may be awarded that same benefit when they turn into buyers, which certainly dulls the sting.
Demand is still weak due to wild fluctuations in mortgage rates. One can argue that the volatility in rates is worse than the rates themselves. A little stability will go a long way in improving demand, however for now it’s the lack of supply pushing prices up.
Commentary written by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst with The Cromford Report ©2023 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC
Should you or someone you know need help finding or selling a home, Chas and I are a safe place to ask questions without expectation. I'm truly grateful for your time. Have a grateful weekend! PS.. I'd have no clue on how to comp this house?! LOL!
