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Thankful is not enough

Have you ever had your head down just pounding away on a task, project, goal, something.. and in the moments of the grind, someone gently approaches to check in... maybe it's not a check in presa, but in the wake of your effort, headphones blaring, you're lost in your own world... casually, someone stops you to get your attention. 

In a daze from being in your flow, you're caught off guard in being approached. Earbuds out, sweat is dripping, you're maybe panting somewhat... and all they say is "hey, I see you" , "yo dude! you keep that shit up".  

That's it.

You pause in your task to take in the surprise "attaboy" ... you're first confused, but then in a quick second you're aware of what's going on...

You say thank you.  Like really... thank you.   


The congratulator simply walks away having just wanted to give you a quick moment of recognition.  Being left to just you and your thoughts to get back after it.. That moment totally made your day.  

Minding my tasks the other day, a friend at our office sent me an attaboy text drawing attention to our efforts.  In the spirit of the giving thanks holiday season, I can't come up within anything beyond that

Thankful is not enough - it's an overwhelming feeling of humbled gratitude 

million dollar real estate club team orange josh brill realty one group

It was just a few months this summer did I pass along a similar attaboy to her and she said, thank you! It won't be too long before you're here again.

Damn dude..  

Slowing down to look at the details a bit closer..  In the span of a 32 day window, Team Orange helped seven families find a new place to call home - of which would have allowed us to be on this kind of recognition for not just one month, but a total of four months?! 

Understanding the industry, the average agent does between 0-2.5 closings a year.. through the efforts of caring and serving uniquely different, gave us the ability to do almost four times that in one month. 

Grateful is all I can say

I'm grateful to my team who's kept me going in light of being deeply burned out.

I'm grateful to my precious bride allowing me to gracefully find my feet

I'm grateful to the my other real estate allies 

and most importantly, I'm grateful to the clients who've trusted us with the opportunity to serve them into new chapters within their lives.


Grateful is all I can say 

I'd be remiss not sharing the latest of the topic with my buddy. 

Inventory in all price points have ticked upward at least 1,000?!

Despite higher interest rates, look at the difference between Nov 2022 vs Nov 2023?

maricopa county real estate data josh brill realty one group

Checking in with my buddies at the Cromford Report, here's a quick recap on the happenings.

Phoenix Real Estate in Q4: 80's Vibes, Buyer's Bonanza, and High-Five Incentives!

All I can say is hang on for a wild ride reminiscent of the '80s with loan assumptions, rate buy-downs, and incentives that'll make you want to shout "hot damn"! Plus, there's more choice for buyers with the supply soaring 22% in just 10 weeks.

Check this shit out?! 

For Buyers:

Guess what? It's the most wonderful time of the year for buyers in Greater Phoenix!  The 4th quarter has brought a real estate feast with inventory shooting up by a whopping 22% in 10 weeks. And let's talk price reductions —October and November are the golden months for scoring a sweet deal.

Builders are out there flexing their motivation muscles. New homes make up a chunky 22% of active MLS listings and a whopping 29% of August sales in Maricopa and Pinal Counties. What's in it for you? Brace yourself for closing cost assistance, snazzy upgrades, and both permanent and temporary rate buy-downs. Picture this: on a $350,000 loan, a 3% rate buy-down could save you over $650/month! Now that's what we call a holiday bonus.

Digging in a bit deeper... builders aren't the only ones in the game. Last month, a cool 45% of closings involved sellers showering buyers with closing cost assistance, averaging a sweet $8,500.  Prepared buyers in the areas with fierce builder competition, like Coolidge, Maricopa, Tolleson, and Laveen, saw a whopping 70% of sellers offering assistance, with 50% dishing out $10,000 or more.

With all the rucks in all things real estate, can't not give a shoutout to our real estate trailblazers —the Baby Boomers and Gen-Xers! They weathered economic storms, high rates, and still rocked their first home purchases. Check out these tales of triumph from our seasoned homeowners:

  • Mike, 72yo - first home in 1976 for $9,600 at 8.25%, gifted down payment from family and rent-to-own appliances. Sold it 3 years later for $19,000.

  • Tom, 68yo - bought his first home in the 70’s together with 3 friends at 9% as tenants in common.

  • Chris, 58yo - first home 1989, paid a distressed seller $4,000 and took over their FHA mortgage payment

  • Thomas, over 59yo - first home was a distressed HUD foreclosure he bought for $55K and fixed it up himself

  • Michael, 66yo - sold his boat and car to purchase his first home at 8.5%

  • Raejean, 57yo - purchased her first home in 1985 at 16.5%

  • Kathleen - purchased in 1979 with gifted down payment and 3-2-1 rate buy down

  • Kathryn - first home in 1981, interest rates were 18%, but she assumed the seller’s VA loan at 6%

  • Nick - bought first home in 1988 with his brother, assumed the seller’s VA loan with $4,500 down and got a roommate to help make the payment, didn’t care about the rate

  • Jon - first home in 1981, assumed a VA loan at 10%, seller financed the rest at 10%. Existing rates were 18%

Every single one of them shared that diving into homeownership, despite tight budgets and sky-high interest rates back then, turned out to be a wise move in retrospect. Nowadays, it's like the golden ticket to chat it out with a seasoned agent and a lender who's got a solid on all the ever changing loan programs.

Buyers, brace yourselves—your second chance at the buyer's market is here!

As we approach a balanced market, 18 cities are still simmering in seller's territory, but 11 are gearing up for a buyer's gain.

What's a buyer's market mean? It's not just about prices dropping; it's a symphony of list prices dancing down, coupled with higher seller incentives. Over the past two months, mortgage rates danced to an 8% tune, leading to a 33% surge in weekly price reductions. The median seller incentive is hitting a record high of $9,900 this November!

But wait, the mortgage rate rollercoaster takes an unexpected twist —conventional rates tumbled to 7.3%, and FHA/VA dipped to 6.7%. It's hard to say if this is a short-lived downturn? As with all things, it'd be great if we had a crystal ball - but we don't.  Best we can suggest is to be well informed by their agent and be on the same page with a lender who's in it for you, not the transactional credit.

For Sellers:

Phoenix is still in a seller's market, but the speedometer is inching towards balance by year-end. Brace yourselves for longer marketing times, sprucing up your home, and being open to rate buy-downs.

Cautionary note: testing the waters with a higher-than-market-value price isn't the play of the day. The outskirts are feeling the market cool first, with Surprise, Litchfield Park, Goodyear, Buckeye, Maricopa, Casa Grande, Gold Canyon, and Queen Creek already dipping into buyer's territory. Balanced markets are hanging out in Cave Creek, Peoria, and Sun City. The rest? Still seller's markets, but hey, they're feeling the chill.

Traditionally, Q4 isn't the prime time to list, but these aren't your everyday circumstances.  The scenario is different for larger multi story homes with a lot of bedrooms vs small/medium single story homes.  One is practical for larger families who buy them.  However, most are hunkered down for the holidays, where after the first of the year clears the table for focus towards new goals.  Conversely, the more modest sized single story homes are not only first time new buyers, they too also fit for Mom and Dad downsizing.. and oftentimes can pay cash.

Listing during the 1st quarter could mean battling more competition, longer days on the market, and more price reductions. We see the closing activity creeping forward into the Springtime.. (but those are homes that are listed during the first of the year) The wild card right now are those unpredictable mortgage rates could still flip the script.

For those selling under the Q4 spotlight, you might snag your asking price, but at a cost —thanks to elevated rates. Sales prices might not shout decline, but your net proceeds might feel a squeeze. It's not the market anyone envisioned, but it's the one we're navigating together.

For Everyone:

There are a lot of moving parts to the up and down roller coaster we call real estate.  Regarding our American Economy, the housing market is at the tip of the spear.  This can be an uncomfortable place for many.  

Rest assured, Team Orange is a safe place to ask questions without expectation.  Should you or someone you know need some selfless guidance on what ride to get on or not get on, we are that place. :)

Thank you for taking the time to read my thoughts. :)  Should they resonate with you and know someone who'd appreciate this, please share with a buddy.

Despite all the uncontrollable things going on in this world, there's a ton to be thankful and grateful for. 

Be a good human and the universe will provide. 

Have a safe and amazing Thanksgiving.  

We appreciate you dearly!

Can't think of a better seasonal picture.  Courtesy of my friend Jane who took the picture then shared it with me.  Beautiful! 

country barn at sunset with colors of the fall

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