Happy morning good friend :)
Boy! it's been a while since I've been able to work on a grateful message on a Friday like times past. Feels nice to do this with a sense of calm in the spirit and not rushing to hammer it out before an appt. Forgive my absence last Friday. I feel like an ass when I can make time for a grateful message on a vacation.. but god forbid I over commit on work and all hell goes to shit and I don't show up.
That is not cool... and it frustrates me.
Lots of self reflection this past month, and I'm due for some slight changes in how I manage my time. First step is acknowledging there's a problem... but for now, it's slightly overcast outside. You can feel the humidity and smell the desert... monsoons are coming! hopefully! HA! and I feel back in the driver seat.
A nice spot :)
Over this past month I have had a ton of people unprovokingly ask me about refinance details. Whether I'm rocking a handyman job, someone asks, past clients are asking, even close friends are... OR, I'm hearing of other people doing so.
Things are moving out there! and to many peoples questions, "should I refinance?" If you can, I think you should.
I believe our insane market is connected to the low rates right now... Quick recap on what's happening in the market...
To put in perspective, a balanced market for the city of Phoenix is approx 30,000... balanced meaning, both buyer and sellers have equal leverage.
Pre Covid, we had about 11,000 homes on the market for sale... a solid "sellers market" This is a true number, all the "accepting backup offer" listings were taken out of the equation [Screw you Zillow!]... assholes.. sorry... #notafan! haha
When Covid crapped all over us, shit stopped for the most part. In about a 2ish week period we had a spike of almost 2,500-3,500 new listings. When you do the math as a percentage of what was available, that's a huge spike! I was watching it daily.. new listing, new listing, new listing... wasn't sure where we were headed.
Then bam! the demand was too much, people got comfortable, maybe we had enough toilet paper now.. I don't know... but shit got crazy busy.
As of this morning there are 9,400 houses available... Zillow, assholes, showcase listings which make it appear as though we have 15,000 on the market for sale. ugh!
There are a little more than 5,000 houses that are under contract "accepting backup offers" right now... [doesn't mean it's an active listing, Zillow] accepting backup offers really means "pending" that aside, there are also 8,500 listings that are legit off market and are pending ready to close escrow... we only have 9,400 for sale today... do that math?!...
And if we look at today and go back just 45 days, there have been over 12,000 closings.. that's ish 2,500 more than we have even for sale... closed and sold, done. in just a 45day window.
Shit. Be. Moving.
I believe it's because Phoenix is such a badass place to live! We have toilet paper now! AND! Interest rates are stupid low.
Here is a short skinny on lending and why you should entertain refinancing...
Obviously if you can drop your interest rate, you can save money. That's good. just be sure to qualify the return on investment.
Maybe you purchased your home with an FHA loan.. great opportunity for slightly vulnerable buyers who only have 3.5% to put down... one big catch with with FHA is that you pay mortgage insurance on the loan for the entire LIFE of the loan. In most cases, it's thereabouts $200-250 EXTRA a month (buried in your payment)... Values have progressed greatly! and increased with wisdom, not stupidity like back in 2005 era.. With enough equity in your home, which is comparable to a large down payment when buying, you can refinance OUT OF an FHA loan and INTO a conventional loan.
Conventional loans do have mortgage insurance, but that is either eliminated after so many years of consistent payments, or, you have enough equity in your home, 20% or more, the mortgage insurance drops. Many lenders now have automatic appraisals.. saving you ish 4-500$ smakers!..
don't forget the savings there!! you've become conditioned to pay that payment... now, your payment loses mortgage insurance, rate drops, and BAM! even more savings... AND you get to skip out on a mortgage payment for a month... or possibly two months?!
Or maybe you're thinking of upgrading your home with some cash out... great idea!
JUST DON'T USE THAT MONEY TO PAY OFF DEBT! ... re-invest it into your house!..
Some great things to use that money for on your home.. these items will either make it sell very quickly if ever sold, or will legitimately add value to the home:
Pool, Pool, and a Pool
An absolute favorite for most people! great choice if you can. Try and stay under a $35,000 investment. Once you go north of that it's incredibly hard to get a return beyond that should you ever sell it again. The more you can create the outside as an extended "living space" the more likely you are to get more $$ on the investment.
I got someone if you need...
New windows
I got someone if you need...
New roof
I got someone if you need...
Remodeled kitchen
I got someone if you need...
Remodeled master bathrooms.
Generations are getting older, the tub in a mast bath is being worked out of the needs list.. be sure to keep a tub in the guest room, but forgoing the tub in the master is a win
I got someone if you need...
Outside paint
Not so much inside... people (future buyers) tend to have less overall care about the outside colors, as long as it's practical and fresh, whereas inside, eh... everyone changes their own colors.
I got someone if you need...
Here's a really cool success story!
A family we know well refinanced out of an FHA loan into a conventional loan and pulled $30K out for a pool. Their mortgage payment stayed the same, the $30K pool investment was earned back in home value as soon as they put the hose in it to fill it up. AND! they were able to go 2 months without a payment... mic drop! :) hahah
If you have any questions about refinancing, I have two great contacts for you! They are Mortgage Brokers, not Bankers. A broker has access to many different lenders on the wholesale market whereas a banker has only a select few. So if you are a unique buyer, you only have so many cogs you can fit in... being a broker, you have a lot of options. Additionally!! these guys have to earn your business... not the way a mortgage banker does at your bank... they get business by proxy. (most of the time).. they have little skin in the game and it's usually not earned based on service like a stand alone broker. Lastly, their fees are traditionally lower than most bankers. :)
NOTE!
I get zero kickbacks, under the table cash, benefits, nothing for working with or referring lenders. I did not put this email together to pitch or sell anything either... I have however worked with an ass load of lenders over the years.... and these guys, both, have gone to war for our people and have the heart of a teacher, not a salesman.
THEY ARE A SAFE PLACE TO ASK QUESTIONS WITHOUT EXPECTATION
The way I look at lenders is the way a good parent qualifies a babysitter... Someone from church says Suzie is a great babysitter. "You should let her watch you kids"... umm... we don't know Suzie... and these are our kids.
No thanks.
You as my friend reading this... you might as well be my kid... and I don't trust just anyone with my kids.
I met Jeremy almost 5 years ago... At the time I was paying for Zillow leads. I fortunately earned an opportunity to serve a very nice customer. Through the same process, they also met Jeremy through the lending side of Zillow. It was 100% organic. We clicked and worked together very well.. no wining and dining, none of that kind of crap.. and that shit happens all the time. Over this time I have brought some wild ass situations that made for very odd lending cog finding dancing scenarios. All of which was done with grace. :) Regardless, Jeremy showed a ton of heart and understanding compassion for people
Side note: Zillow is NOT in the business to help buyers get their dream home... NOPE!... they are in business ONLY to sell leads to real estate agents... is why they like looking at our "accepting backup offers" as active listings... they can keep marketing the house to gain more leads... some agents spend $10,000 a month on Zillow.. ?! WTH?!!
I was rocking an open house and it happened to be conveniently slow... Tyler came in and introduced himself. He was soft spoken, approachable, and had a gentle demeanor. Rare to find in this business.. Seriously like blood in the water with sharks. ugh!... We talked and hit it off. What stood out about Tyler is that he did bring me something. A small get after it, keep going bag. The part that stood out to me was that he also included an unsolicited 40min seminar about business AND mailed me a book. It wasn't read to sell this, it was I think you would appreciate this kind of wisdom. Additionally, he's a random giver and has a unique unconventional approach to serving people. Greatly aligned philosophy
Unless a buyer brings their own lender to the table, it is these two guys that we religiously share our metaphoric kids, our kids with.. :)
The funniest thing about this, for me at least, both of these guys have no clue that I name dropped and copied them to this! haha.
If you have questions about your lending situation, even if you need just a second opinion of what's being fed to you from another lender, both of these guys are a safe place to ask questions without expectation.
I shared them with you because I care about you just as much as I do about them. Our industry needs more people like these guys. I hope you found this different kind of market/lending update helpful. It was motivated by what I'm seeing and hearing out in the real world and thought it would be good to share. Chas and I are here too if you have questions about such things. We'd be grateful to help share our wisdom on this kind of decision making should you need. Have a grateful weekend friend! :)
