Happy Friday buddy! :)
Looking back on times past, I was trying to average a market update like this about every four months ... but with the Christmas holiday along with flu, covid, flu, covid, strep.. blah blah... all that got in the way and pushed me back some.
Now that the sun is out, it's damn beautiful outside! I figured now was the time to give it a go!
Here is the link to the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOGlQGVN_3M&t=3s
Meat and potatoes for you:
Using the search criteria within the MLS, looking at all active listings with Maricopa County only: Regardless of price point: Active listings: 3,234 Pending/Under Contract: 7,483 Closed listings: 5,286 Single family homes only: Under $600,000 = 1,727 Under $400,000 = 475
The latest S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® numbers were published on January 22.
The new report covers home sales during the period October 2021 to December 2021. Comparing with the previous month's series we see the following changes:
San Diego +1.82%
New York +1.11%
Los Angeles +1.00%
Las Vegas +0.97%
San Francisco +0.85%
Phoenix has risen 2 places to sixth place and remains well above the national average, which was 0.92%. No city declined month to month. Comparing year of year, we see the following changes:
San Diego +25.9%
Las Vegas +25.5%
Los Angeles +19.3%
San Francisco +18.8%
New York +13.7%
Phoenix is top of the year-over-year table for the 31st consecutive month. This means that buying a home in Phoenix has become more expensive at a far higher rate than any of the other 19 cities.
The national average was 18.8%
In 2020 covid showed its ugly head. We anticipated an influx of listings. I was watching what was going on at that time. In March/April our inventory kicked up to around 14,000'ish.. to our surprise however all that did was light the fuse. For perspective, in the years 2018 - 2019, home values increased 6.5%. This was
From 2019 to 2020, home values increased 21.1%
Move forward from Feb of 2020 Feb of 2021.. the inventory of active listings had declined 58% and increased in value 11.8%
- active listings declined fifty eight percent! - but increased in value almost twelve percent!
From 2020 to 2021, home values increased 25.9%
Where is 2022 going? Not sure. No F'n clue?! The experts are not projecting an adjustment in pricing anytime soon. ARMLS reported the fewest number of active listings for any February 1 in ARMLS history. Michael Orr from the Cromford Report, “New listing counts have been low over the past few weeks and there is still no sign of the supply situation improving. Dramatic increases in supply is what is needed to correct the imbalance in the market. If demand were to drop to the level that supply started to build again, this would take us towards balance. But this would likely occur at a slow pace that could take a very long time to reach anything close to normality. Demand would need to collapse to get back to balance with supply.” Unless the supply of MLS homes for sale achieves a range of 16,000-24,000 listings, prices will continue to rise before demand drops low enough to stop them.
Why is this shit happening?
I think for a couple reasons... There is the philosophy of buy and hold...
Rentals for example have never been harder to find and are commanding premiums that make owning a home worth the effort... but not everyone can swing that opportunity. As a landlord/investor, why bother selling? Retirement is a big factor in Phoenix. Some odd 40%-45% are retirees. As the baby boomers age out, they are staying put. I have a number of handyman clients who have chosen to keep their Phoenix vacation home as their permanent residence and sell their other home. Airbnb homes are increasing in their population as well. A recent finding showed that of approximately 85,000 homes in Scottsdale, 5,000 are vacation rentals... Again, why bother selling. What I believe is happening is that there are a lot of seller apprehension and affordability challenges. Of which I cannot blame them. Why sell your home when you have no confident grounds to buy a home you want. A buyer is faced with buying a home for much more but getting a lot less of a home. There's shit to select from. Buying is a streamlined process now. Feds have increased buying amounts for buyers over recent years. Which is great! ... but the minimum down payments in today's price point is incredibly difficult.. especially if one is on a fixed income due to retirement or hell, a first time home buyer. Not to mention, after the minimum down payment are met, what can someone swing in a monthly payment?
For me, this kind of shit breaks my heart.. can be really emotionally draining. I believe what makes a good agent is being selfless. Selfless enough to put themselves in front of the bus and take the hit emotionally or financially. This is having direct conversations with people who do want to move on, or step down in their lives, but have the courage to push the stressful questions to the surface and talk them out. Rather than tie them up on a listing agreement and sell the home overnight.... The only thing I can suggest is to proceed with caution and have a plan in action. Be leery on the quick sell, move out whenever, we'll pay your mortgage, we have this process down brokerages and think things through. If you're looking for someone to help, be sure they have "where" and "what" you are doing LONG before talking about sales price..
If you need such a place, we are that place. A safe place to ask questions without expectation and we will not spam you with nonsense while you try and figure things out with your family.
"You're not a transaction"
There's a stack of info there... should you have more questions, or want to see charts and shit cause that's how your head works, I got you. :) Here's the link to the video if you read that first before watching. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gOGlQGVN_3M&t=3s
It's gosh dang amazing outside! Be safe and let us know if you need anything. Have a grateful weekend!